Hezbollah Awaits Return of Northern Settlers to Push for Full Israeli Withdrawal if It Falls Short

By Elijah J. Magnier

Lebanon’s geopolitical and military dynamics remain fraught with tension and uncertainty, amplified by recent developments in both political and military arenas. The approval of Joseph Aoun as President of the Lebanese Republic, strongly influenced and dictated by US and Saudi preferences, marks a significant political moment. Yet, this selection, made without competition – but only with king makers Hezbollah and Shia AMAL movement agreement – does little to stabilise the country, which continues to grapple with deep-seated instability, compounded by the devastation of hundreds of thousands of homes in need of reconstruction and a dire economic crisis. Progress on rebuilding remains slow and insufficient to meet the vast scale of destruction.

Meanwhile, the deadline for the complete withdrawal of Israeli occupation forces from the Lebanese villages and strategic hills they seized during the recent war is fast approaching. While the withdrawal is expected to proceed, speculation abounds that Israel may retain control over certain high-altitude positions deemed strategically sensitive. Hezbollah would see such an outcome as a provocation and a justification to reinstate its military resistance activities.

However, Hezbollah’s next steps are likely to be calculated and strategic. The group appears to be biding its time, waiting for the return of a substantial number of the approximately 90,000 Israeli settlers who